Surviving the recession

  1. Cash Control is Key
  • Make sure you are aware of all aspects of your current financial position. Sticking your head in the sand and hoping it will all fix itself is never going to be constructive.
  • Budget, forecast and review frequently; the sooner you know something is not quite right, the sooner you can take corrective action and minimise the harm to your business.
  • Ensure you have an effective credit control process which closely manages debtors and receivables. Remember that you can always renegotiate credit terms if necessary.
  1. Proper Preparation Prevents Poor Performance
  • Research your market thoroughly so you know your place in relation to your competitors, pricing, marketing and objectives.
  • Plan both short-term and long-term achievable objectives. Remember to monitor your progress in relation to your plan, updating it if necessary and providing feedback to staff and other stakeholders if appropriate.
  • Think to the future and ensure that any retention of title clauses in your terms of trading are sufficiently drafted to secure your proprietary interest and protect yourself if a debtor becomes insolvent. 
  1. Think Outside the Box
  • In uncertain times the rules have to be adapted to achieve the best results and slightly less conventional methods of raising finance, such as asset-based lending, may offer viable solutions. Ensure you’ve considered all the options and evaluate which best suits your goals.
  • It’s very easy to get caught up thinking about the welfare and activities of your own company but don’t forget to consider the wider environment and potential risks from external sources such as suppliers.
  1. Be Proactive 
  • If your cash flow becomes problematic, speak to creditors early and try and initiate informalarrangements to defer payment temporarily.
  • If a debtor enters insolvency proceedings, make a claim as soon as possible and inform the appointed insolvency practitioner so that you are kept informed and can participate in the process where possible.
  • If you think you’re at risk of becoming insolvent, contact an insolvency practitioner as soon as possible so you can take advice on saving the business, minimising liabilities and maximising returns to creditors.

Survive the credit crunch

For most businesses, the next year or so will be a time of battening down the hatches as they see their profits squeezed, their cash flows under increasing pressure, and the banks not as 'profligate' as they were before.   The companies that manage to trade through this period will find most of the answers lying within, rather than outside, the business.  For them, cash will be 'King', all thoughts of growing market share or maintaining profitability will be sidelined as the focus is placed firmly on a survival of the (cash) fittest.  

Smaller businesses with no 'unique selling point' will struggle more than most because the survival of their customers' and suppliers' own businesses does not rely on their continued existence.  To them past relationships will count for nought as such smaller businesses are a mere 'cash flow issue', an opportunity for customers to make a one off profit as competitors move in and provide a similar service at a similar price.   Few, even the largest companies, will be unaffected by the downturn.       

 With virtually every business in the UK expected to make some changes to the way they operate in order to conserve cash, some just to survive, others to put themselves in a better position to make the best off the upturn when it comes, what are the key steps management should take to increase the generation of cash, and maximise the retention of cash, within the business? 

The answer probably lies in a combination of actions: 

  • Cut out all non-essential expenditure.  Do it now, do not defer it for another day.  Be brutal, assume that the sector will not recover quickly, if at all.  If you have cut too deeply, you can probably repair things later on.  If you do not cut deeply enough, you could die 'a death of a thousand cuts' , others  on whom you may need to rely later for support will view your management skills as weak.
  • Recognise where your commercial muscle lies, and then fully utilise it.  This can be on the supply side (typically) or sales side (less often).  Use your muscle to obtain longer payment terms from your suppliers.  They will not want to see you reduce your spend or go out of business.  Use your muscle to secure earlier payment from your customers.  They may need your prompt service or wish to see you reduce your prices to help them survive.  Be flexible, do what is necessary in the short to medium term.
  • Reduce your fixed costs (those that you have to pay regardless of how busy you are) and increase the proportion of variable costs that you have.  Examples of this include taking on temporary rather than permanent staff.  Changing your cost base to one that is more resilient to unforeseen changes in activity levels will increase the chances of you surviving the battle of the fittest. 
  • Keep on good terms with your bank and HM Revenue & Customs.  The bank's view is often that as the largest single investor in your business, you should have more regard to their interests than others'.  HMRC's view is that, as an 'involuntary' creditor, any ' investment' in your business is probably too much.  Don't rely on getting better terms from either, expect both to cut a hard bargain.  But be fair with them and recognise their views, and they will probably be fair with you.
  • Cut your own outgoings.  You will not encourage others to work with you and support you if they do not see you hurting too.                     

Finally, as many businesses or businessmen have not been through a period such as this before, take early advice from you accountants or an Insolvency Practitioner early.  They will take a helicopter view of your business and compare what is achievable for you with what they have seen elsewhere and before.  Use their experience to your best advantage and do not try to paddle on through stormy waters in your own, lonely, boat.

Find a Business Angel

We all know how to find a good service provider - personal recommendation. But what if you want help now and don't know who to ask?

One piece of good advice is to be wary of paying someone up front to find an investor for you - see Corporate Insolvency - Ecademy for an independent consultant's view. Any good professional will discuss your business with you first without charge and look to establish whether a business angel is likely to invest. I certainly would, and I would be delighted to help you find an investor if that's the best thing to do in all the circumstances. Of course, the right solution may be corporate or operational restructuring, or even the use of an insolvency process, and you may be advised to spend money with the professional to implement that optimum solution.

By the way, adding to the Ecademy post, if you want to find an insolvency practitioner (not that you need to look any further if you're reading this),  the most user-friendly search tool is at the website  of R3, the insolvency practitioners' trade body,  here.

An Insolvency Practitioner's perspective on the economy

Some say we are on the brink of a major slow down. Clearly the economy is not as strong as it has been, but surely the real questions are:

  • just how sharp is the ‘adjustment’ likely to be;
  • how long will it last; and
  • where will it be felt most?

Let’s look back over some recent figures and at the same time consider what the future may hold:

  • Currently GDP is growing at 2.9% pa and is expected to fall to under 2% over the next few months. Research has shown a 1% drop in GDP growth could lead to a 10% increase in corporate insolvencies (see our previous post). The economy has been incredibly resilient throughout the last decade, but the credit crunch has ended that period of stability.
  • Whilst inflation is presently running just above the government’s target at just 2.2%, the Bank of England is forecasting a rise to over 3% in the near future giving rise to further pressures on disposable income. 
  • House prices are weakening generally across the country, although less so in London. The recent reduction in loan to value ratios and income multiples on offer will restrict mortgage funding and reduce both demand and consumer confidence.
  • Total personal debt levels, at £1.4 trillion, are huge and growing at £1 million every 5 minutes, more than three times the rate of inflation. The growth in personal debt may be slowing, but record numbers of personal insolvencies and a significant number of borrowers defaulting support the trend towards less excessive consumer spending.

In summary, the main aspects of the economy are less volatile than, say, the 1980s to early '90s when huge swings could be expected. The economy has certainly become more unstable during the last 6 months, but overall, I expect the ‘adjustment’ to be relatively shallow and short-lived, with the pain being suffered more in particular regions or sectors :

  • Retailers who enjoy a strong market position and are well organised and managed are likely to fare better than their weaker competitors. Suppliers of ‘growth support services’ into retailers, such as shopfitters, can expect a further deterioration in both sales volumes and margins, causing viability and solvency issues (see previous post).
  • Pubs and restaurants have already seen their takings fall as a result of consumers’ reduced free cash, the smoking ban, and cheap supermarket alcohol. Fixed costs remain high, and leisure outlets with poor procedures and low staff morale are at risk.
  • Confidence is low in the construction industry, despite the Olympics Effect and government housing requirements. Many construction related companies will not be able to cope with any further reduction in prices or any deferral of work or payment by the major employers(see previous post).

The slow down in these parts of the economy will no doubt create added opportunities for Insolvency Practitioners to bring their turnaround skills to bear to rescue ailing but viable businesses, as well as to assist in close down scenarios. As always, early attention to potential problems increases the likelihood that a turnaround will be achievable.